In Defense of Marquis

Sorry for the lack of posts; sometimes my real job messes with my life.

Before the season started, I predicted problems in a few spots for the Cubs. For the most part, the problems haven't cropped up, though at least in the case of Theriot, I still think I'll end up being right eventually.

One thing I was pretty adamant about was that Marquis needed to go. I was certain Lieber would be a better choice, or, failing Lieber, perhaps Marshall or Gallagher. (Of course, I still thought Rich Hill would return to form. Oops.)

So here we are in late August, and Marquis is still there, and despite the outcome of yesterday's game, I have to say...I was wrong. Look, he's not Rich Harden or Carlos Zambrano, but that's fine. Nobody has an ace in the 5th slot of the rotation. Generally teams expect their fifth starter to not suck and hopefully keep things under control enough to make the games winnable.

Using that yardstick, Marquis is doing fine. So far this year he's thrown a little over 134 innings, giving up 141 hits and 71 runs, walking 52 and striking out 71. The K/9 and K/BB ratios aren't good at all, of course, but he's giving up a BABIP of .288, which is pretty sustainable. His ERA+ is 94, so he's basically slightly below-average.

I'm guessing a lot of teams would really like to have that kind of production at the back of the rotation.

Sabathia v. Harden

There's all kinds of talk about CC Sabathia: what a tremendous pickup he was, how he should merit MVP consideration, etc.

Almost ignored, meanwhile, is Rich Harden and what he's done for the Cubs.

Don't get me wrong; Sabathia has been brilliant. Since becoming a Brewer, he's pitched 73 innings and given up 60 hits and 52 earned runs, posting an ERA+ of 270 and a WHIP of 1.027.

Meanwhile, all Rich Harden has done is pitch 42 innings, giving up 26 hits and 7 (count 'em!) earned runs, and posting an ERA+ of 300 and a WHIP of 0.952. The innings difference boils down to the Cubs trying to take care of Harden's arm/health, whereas Ned Yost seems determined to get as much out of Sabathia's arm as he can.

I know how good a pitcher Sabathia is. I'm just suggesting that as good as he's been since the trade, Harden's been better.

(And no, this has nothing whatsoever to do with my Cub bias...)

Soto for MVP? Really?

Peter Gammons thinks so. (Normally subscription required, though right now it's available to everyone.) Or at least...that's his hook.

Naturally my knee-jerk reaction was that Gammo had finally lost his marbles.
Sure, Soto's having a great year, and I don't think Rookie of the Year is out of reach, but MVP?

Of course, Gammons doesn't really think Soto's the MVP. His points:

• Soto is one of the best offensive catchers in the league
• Soto handles the pitching staff very well (and it's one heck of a staff)
• His defense is good enough
• Catchers are inherently more valuable if they can also provide real offense

I don't disagree with most of his points, although I'm not sure there's any evidence that "handling a pitching staff" is actually a skill, or has any measurable effect. I know pitchers think so, but that doesn't mean anything: just because you play the game doesn't mean you truly understand how it works. (See Morgan, Joe.)

Soto's pretty important to the Cubs, don't get me wrong. He's having a hell of a year, and I expect that he'll have many more. For a team that's spent a long time rolling out a number of real stiffs behind home plate, I'm thrilled beyond words.

But MVP? No.